"Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. Weak men create hard times" - G. Michael Hopf

The cycle continues, and I'm sure you can deduct which part we're going through at the moment.

The current Russia/Ukraine crisis comes as no surprise to anyone. People can say what they want, but truth be told, this would have happened regardless of the POTUS - although it's obvious that the sitting President isn't exactly intimidating.

Nobody knows what's truly happening, and although it's a tragedy that a sovereign nation has been invaded by another, we must turn our attention away from where we're told to look and instead look deeper at the situation; think, what are we being distracted from?

I don't have a crystal ball, but through independent research and logical deduction, we Americans must prepare for the following food crises that are the true motivations behind Russia's actions. War wasn't declared on Ukraine - war was declared on the food supply chain.

No Trade, No Wheat

The grains exported from Russia and Ukraine accounts for 30% of global exports, and they are now at a standstill. By Thursday, less than two days after the invasion, wheat futures prices soared sharply in anticipation of disrupted supplies and market breakdowns. Combine this with American sanctions, and what you have left is a shortage of wheat for America.

This has two obvious and dangerous consequences to America, and a third that is swept under the rug. First, the prices of everything processed with wheat will skyrocket, placing an incredible strain on our economy already under immense pressure. Second, there will be even less food to go around, which will result in not only less wheat products, but less of everything else as consumers begin to turn to other food sources they wouldn't normally buy.

The third is being kept quiet by every government, especially our own; for years, Russia has been shut out of the Chinese market due to concerns over possible fungus and general contamination. On Thursday, China's customs agency suddenly gave the green light to import wheat from all of Russia. This nullifies any sanctions the Americans placed on Russia and provides China with a surplus of wheat while the food supply and economy in America is greatly weakened.

No Black Sea, No Edible Oil

As of writing, reports are coming out that three merchant ships have been hit by missiles in the Black Sea, further damaging an already crippled supply chain and placing the safety of merchants who use that area to export in question.

In addition to accounting for a significant portion of the world's wheat, Russia and Ukraine are also the world's two largest exporters of sunflower oil; the Black Sea accounts for 60% of global output of the oil and 76% of exports. Although this may seem like it's nothing, it's quite the opposite. 

Earlier this year, Indonesia heavily restricted exports of palm oil, which is the world's most produced edible oil, and recent droughts drastically reduced the output of soy oil coming out of South America, which is the second most produced edible oil.

To compensate for these shortages, food suppliers turned to the fourth most-produced edible oil - sunflower oil. Now that the option to purchase this oil has essentially been removed for the foreseeable future, countries are turning to Brazil in desperation for soy oil to replace sunflower oil; but as we will see, Brazil is also facing consequences from the conflict that will eventually remove that option as well.

No Fertilizer, No Food

With all other options exhausted, nations are scrambling to others for soybean oil. China is currently the world's largest producer of soybean oil, America is second, and Brazil is third; but the problem here doesn't lie with a shortage of soybean oil, but rather a shortage of fertilizer to produce the product.

Brazil relies on imports for about 85% of its fertilizer needs, and Russia is its biggest supplier of critical components needed for the fertilizer mixture required to grow soybeans. The danger of sailing the Black Sea combined with Russia and Ukraine either completely halting or drastically reducing their fertilizer output means that the global food supply's last hope for consumable oil to feed their nations is in serious danger.

The final piece to the fertilizer puzzle is the cost of it; more demand + less supply = higher prices, and the price of the fertilizer mixture released is projected to be too expensive for Brazil to justify using it to grow soybeans. Even before the Ukraine invasion, the price of fertilizer was steadily climbing due to supply chain issues, US sanctions on Belarus, and China's absence from the market since October 2021.

This fertilizer problem is not just hitting Brazil; American farmers have been sounding the alarm about fertilizer shortages and prices for a few years now, and they too are dependent on Russia and Ukraine for the same fertilizer components. This will affect the crops that are used to feed Americans as well as the cattle eaten by Americans, burning the candle at both ends.

Ukraine is a Red Herring

Putting this all together, the picture becomes abundantly clear; China and Russia have positioned themselves to hold the word's food supply hostage, using the Ukraine invasion as the spark to light the fire they have long gathered wood for.

Although China is the largest global producer of wheat, it has halted exporting it October 2021. Combined, Russia and Ukraine account for 30% of global wheat exports. Russia's wheat economy won't be damaged by American sanctions because China has suddenly began to accept imports from Russia after the Ukrainian invasion.

Due to global logistic problems and countries halting exports, the global food supply chain turned to sunflower oil - which Russia and Ukraine being the world's largest exporters and producers of.

Now the world is scrambling to secure soybean oil - of which China is again the largest producer of, but again is not exporting - from other nations, mostly Brazil. However, Brazil is dependent on Russia and Ukraine to supply critical components of the fertilizer needed to grow soybeans, and the invasion combined with rising prices of fertilizer will soon eliminate this option as well. American farmers are also dependent for the same fertilizer ingredients which was already priced high and in short supply.

Unconventional Warfare

It is no coincidence that Russia, China, and Ukraine positioned themselves to be critical components of the global food supply chain - and it is no coincidence that they had systems in place to prosper economically from each other if sanctions were imposed.

War has been waged on not just the citizens of the United States, but the citizens of the world. It's time to turn off the TV, put down your phone, build a community, and learn how to grow your own food.

We are about to experience a global Holodomor and you must position yourself and your family to survive it. Stay focused.

God Bless America, 
Justin